油气管道经济损失风险可接受准则研究

 秦国晋1,冼国栋2,杨钦3

(1.西南石油大学 机电工程学院,四川 成都 610500;2.中国石油天然气股份有限公司西南管道分公司,四川 成都 610000;3.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院,四川 成都 610500)
摘要:对于石油和天然气管道,风险评估的目的是降低风险而不是消除风险。就管道结构而言,要达到绝对的安全即所谓的零风险只是理想目标,成本高且技术上难以达到。探讨和确定了我国油气管道经济损失风险可接受准则。使用模糊故障树计算得出基于定量风险的管道的可忽略失效风险PC1≈4.083×10-6与最大可接受失效风险PC2≈3.329×10-3。基于此,提出了油气管道经济损失风险可接受准则制定方法,采用P-L曲线结合ALARP原理确定了油气管道企业职工伤亡事故经济损失风险可接受准则。获得的石油和天然气管道失效可接受风险准则的数量级与国内外化工行业特殊设备风险的现行可接受标准相同,但要达到国外现有风险水平还需要增加风险投入。
关键词:特种设备;管道风险评价;风险可接受性;故障树分析
中图分类号:TE973 文献标志码:A doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-0316.2018.09.007
文章编号:1006-0316 (2018) 09-0041-07
Acceptable Criteria for Economic Loss Risk of Oil and Gas Pipelines
QIN Guojin1,XIAN Guodong2,YANG Qin3
( 1.School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China; 2.Petro China Co Ltd, Southwest Pipeline Company, Chengdu 610000, China;
3.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China )
Abstract:For oil and gas pipelines, the purpose of risk assessment is to reduce risks rather than eliminate risks. As far as pipeline structure is concerned, to achieve absolute safety is only an ideal goal, which is costly and difficult to achieve technically. The acceptable criteria for the economic loss risk of the oil and gas pipeline in China are discussed and confirmed. The fuzzy risk tree is used to calculate the risk PC1≈4.083×10-6 and the maximum acceptable risk PC2≈3.329×10-3 of oil and gas pipelines based on quantitative risk. Based on this, a study method for the acceptance criteria of oil and gas pipeline economic loss risk is put forward. The acceptance criteria of economic loss risk of casualty accidents in oil and gas pipeline enterprises are determined by using the P-L curve and the principle of ALARP. The results show that the quantity of the oil and gas pipeline failure acceptable risk criteria is the same order of magnitude as the acceptable standard of the existing domestic and foreign chemical industry special equipment risk acceptable standards. Compared with the existing risk levels in foreign countries, our country also needs to increase the risk investment.
Key words:special equipment;pipeline risk assessment;risk acceptability;fault tree analysis
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收稿日期:2018-07-02
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(50974105);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD-20);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20105121110003)
作者简介:秦国晋(1993-),男,四川南充人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为油气管道结构安全工程。
 

 

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