基于故障树的油气集输管道腐蚀失效分析

 杨钦1,冼国栋2,秦国晋3

(1.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院,四川 成都 610500;2.中国石油天然气股份有限公司 西南管道分公司,四川 成都 610000;3.西南石油大学 机电工程学院,四川 成都 610500)
摘要:鉴于油气集输管道腐蚀失效频率高,需要准确有效地分析腐蚀失效原因。通过建立故障树并进行结构重要度分析,确定集输管道腐蚀失效的原因;利用层次分析法(AHP)确立专家评判权重,运用模糊集理论建立集输管道腐蚀失效概率计算模型进行定量分析。结果表明:系统中外腐蚀的最小割集数量最多,应加强对外腐蚀的预防;根据结构重要度排序得出,应先对管道抗蚀性差、人为破坏以及运行变差制定防护措施,可通过提高管材防腐蚀能力、提高巡线频率、增加防腐绝缘层等,防止腐蚀失效事故的发生。集输管道腐蚀失效概率计算模型为油气田集输管道的完整性管理的开展提供了科学的指导。
关键词:集输管道;故障树;AHP;模糊集理论;失效概率
中图分类号:TE973 文献标志码:A doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-0316.2018.09.005
文章编号:1006-0316 (2018) 09-0028-07
Analysis of Corrosion Failure of Oil and Gas Gathering Pipelines by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis
YANG Qin1,XIAN Guodong2,QIN Guojin1
( 1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China; 2.Petro China Co Ltd, Southwest Pipeline Company, Chengdu 610000, China;
3.School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China )
Abstract:In view of the high corrosion failure frequency of oil and gas gathering pipelines, it's necessary to analyze the causes of corrosion failure accurately and effectively. By establishing the fault tree and analyzing the structural importance, the paper determines the cause of the corrosion failure of the gathering pipelines. The expert evaluation weight is established by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the fuzzy set theory is used to establish the corrosion failure probability calculation model of the gathering pipeline for quantitative analysis. The results show that the number of minimum cuts sets of external corrosion is the largest in the system, and the prevention of external corrosion should be strengthened. According to the Order of structural importance, it is necessary to set up protective measures for the corrosion resistance of pipeline, man-made damage and the failure of operation, which can improve the anti-corrosion ability of pipe, increase the frequency of patrol line, increase anticorrosion insulating layer, etc. To prevent the occurrence of corrosion failure accidents. The model of the corrosion failure probability of the gathering pipeline provides scientific guidance for the development of the integrity management of oil and gas field gathering pipelines.
Key words:gathering pipeline;fault tree;AHP;fuzzy set theory;failure probability
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收稿日期:2018-07-02
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(50974105);中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD-20);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20105121110003)
作者简介:杨钦(1995-),女,四川南充人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为油气管道完整性管理。
 

 

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